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2nd wave to end by mid-July in AP, calculates SRM varsity team


In the current pandemic situation, a pertinent question is an estimate of the time by which virus spread could be contained and normalcy would return. IN this context, Prof D. Narayana Rao, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, SRM University-AP, initiated a study. Dr. Soumyajyoti Biswas of SRMU-AP, along with B.Tech students, carried out a study to predict the end time of Covid-19 spread in the state of Andhra Pradesh.

According to the results, the infections would show a declining trend by July 15 in AP. Prof. Narayana Rao said that the study employed Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, making use of the information on the Covid-affected people and the recovered number of people, which the Government of AP made it available through the control command center.

He said that the SRM team made use of the data, employed the SIR Model and applied the methods of Machine Learning. He stated that the study revealed that by July 15, 2021, the rate of infection in AP would be below 100 per day. He explained that with the assumption that the decay rate of infection is the same as the growth rate, the model predicts that the number of infected people could be 10,000 on May 21, 15,000 on May 30, 1,000 on June 14, 500 on June 23 and 100 on July 15. The report has been submitted to the Special Chief Secretary to the Chief Minister.

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